How to prepare for what is ahead of the housing market?

23 August 2018

The decrease in the sale of flats recorded in the first and second quarters of 2018 makes everyone talk about yet another slowdown in the primary real estate market. However, the condition of the industry preoccupies not only developers. Leading representatives and experts of all professional circles associated with the residential sector will meet for the 12th time at the Polish Residential Market conference to discuss the future of the industry.

Persisting high demand and the sale of flats which has been increasing since 2014, resulted in figures that the residential sector representatives have got used to. The developers, encouraged by the short sell-out period, ensured adequate supply and a large selection, while the favourable macroeconomic conditions encouraged to purchase – not only the buyers of their first homes or those who upgraded their place of residence, but also investors interested in letting. The 2017 record, namely 73,000 new flats sold on 6 markets with the highest sales, will be difficult to beat in the near future, as the latest quarterly results of REAS monitoring suggest.

Exhaustion of the funds for subsidies under the government Mieszkanie dla Mlodych (Home for the Young) scheme and the announcement of its discontinuation were the first steps that triggered a discussion about a possible economic downturn. Subsequent months, however, showed that it was not the absence of government subsidies, but the decreasing supply and rising prices that will become the biggest problem for the developers. Investment costs are constantly growing due to limited access to investment land, its rising prices and a sharp increase in the costs of labour and materials. Developers who want to maintain their margins are forced to increase the prices of flats, and some of them experience problems with launching new projects. All this resulted in declines in both the volume of transactions as well as new supply. Is there a way to reverse this trend?

On 22 and 23 October, during the 12th edition of the Polish Residential Market conference organized by Nowy Adres S.A. at the Hilton hotel, a group of residential real estate experts will attempt to find an answer to this question. REAS experts who will take part in two discussion panels will also share their knowledge.

The first one “Still a long stretch, or already a dangerous curve? Residential market after Q3 2018” will be opened by Katarzyna Kuniewicz, a REAS partner, who will present the results of the latest monitoring of the primary residential market. The panel will be hosted by Barbara Bugaj, a senior real estate analyst, and the participants include:

  • Marek Poddany, Deputy Chairman of the Polish Association of Developers (PZFD)
  • Michał Abramczyk, co-founder and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of MichaelStröm Dom Maklerski
  • Włodzimierz Stasiak, Vice-President of the Management Board of BGKN

Rental flats will also be discussed at the end of the first day of the conference. The “Accelerating rental market: a short-term investment alternative or a permanent source of wealth and multigenerational capital transfer” discussion panel will be hosted by Maximilian Mendel, a REAS partner managing the transaction advisory team. Other experts taking part in the discussion include:

  • Artur Kaźmierczak, President of the Management Board of Mzuri Investments
  • Robert Kiereś, blogger at rozsadnibracia.pl
  • Jacek Kusiak, Chairman of the Mieszkanicznik Association
  • Michał Szałajko, General Manager of Hamilton May

 

Other REAS experts will also be there so they will gladly talk to you on the side.

More information about the conference: https://www.biznesowi.pl/konferencje/polski-rynek-mieszkaniowy/.

REAS clients and business partners can also recive a special discount for participation in the event. Detailed information on this subject is provided by Monika Kulińska, tel. 795 550 441; mkulinska@nowyadres.pl.